Written by Hunter Norwood
Edited by Mike Ahl
*Based on an aggregation of our 3 main Elo sheets.
Hunter Norwood (HN): Halfway through the season and oh my has it been a crazy one! We’ve got blowouts, game winning drives, last second field goals and walk-off wins through 6 weeks, with another 6 plus playoffs to go. Though let’s not get too ahead of ourselves as this week we look back on how everyone did and have a little fun with things and do some more Over/Unders; this time around I’ll be taking teams over/under/push(over being a better placement here) based on their current standings. Also I do want to mention that if you had seen our previous BTS tweet then you’d have seen that last week may have been the last you’ve seen of the All-Time Elo sheet. Well, through six weeks I’ve come to the conclusion that an offshoot of that sheet that was being tested is looking better this season and more in line with what I would want out of Elo. I won’t attempt to fully explain it but at the root of it I have regressed all teams by 85% and will “start over” in a way to signify the beginning of the Legend Era. Alright, now back to the rankings.
Jack Wall couldn’t be here this week as he looks into venues for his “No apologies for being this Awesome!” tour.
Biggest movers: Fort Worth Toros(+4), London Knights(+4), Carolina Skyhawks(-4), Las Vegas Fury(-5)
(+1)1. Baltimore Vultures (5-1)
HN: Baltimore comes in as the current 2nd seed and I’ll be going safe here and calling this a push. I think their H2H loss to Denver is going to come around to bite them when the final seeding of teams occurs and will hold them back from attaining the top seed in the playoffs. Regardless, this Baltimore team is looking very strong and there aren’t too many teams left on the schedule that should pose much of a threat to them.
(-1)2. Denver Nightwings (5-1)
HN: Denver is the 1st seed despite losing this past weekend to the Hyenas and while some may say that their flaws are now on full display I do not think that the teams that they have yet to play will be able to expose them like Houston could. I’m seeing a 10-2 tie at the top and Denver is going to hold this 1st seed come playoff time.
(+1)3. Jacksonville Kings (4-2)
HN: Jacksonville has steadily been moving up from the 11th seed to the 10th and now to the 7th. Now, for that I will take the over on them as they look to climb some more against a reeling Vancouver team. Gaining ground and pushing yourself away from the .500 mire of teams is always good and I’m seeing anywhere from 8-4 to 10-2 out of the Kings this season.
(+4)4. Fort Worth Toros (5-1)
HN: Fort Worth is off to a hot start and finds themselves in the 3rd seed in the playoffs so far. The hype train is going fast and people are starting to feel like this team could really come out of left field and make a deep run this season. With the top two seeds accounted for already I feel like I’m being the boring pundit here but I see the Toros holding steady at 3 with their division title helping them to win some much needed tiebreakers.
(-2)5. Florida Storm (4-2)
HN: Despite the strong showing that Florida has shown in the first half of the season I’m predicting that they just miss out on a division title and that will be the deciding factor that will hold them back from a higher seed in the playoffs. I’ll be taking the under but it will be damn close!
(-1)6. Vancouver Legion (3-3)
HN: The Legion have gone from semi finalists last season, to a 3-0 start, to a 3 game losing streak and with another loss against a top tier team they could start to see their season become a bit bleak. With what I’ve seen so far I’ll be taking Vancouver on the under from their current 11th place through six weeks.
(+2)7. Mexico City Aztecs (4-2)
HN: It’s starting to feel like the SFL is emulating the NBA All-Star break where the top teams at the midway point are still the top teams when all is said and done. I have the Aztecs, who are quietly a 4-2 team, finishing the season off in the 8th seed, which is where they currently stand now. There’s only so much you can do when Fort Worth is firing and all cylinders and will look to just add to the South Division’s resume by being the 2nd team in.
(-2)8. Los Angeles Lycans (4-1)
HN: With Los Angeles being new it makes projecting how they will do a bit harder, but with the Lycans currently holding the 6th seed in the standings, I am going to take them at an under; albeit slight. In my record projections I have them winning the Pacific but not quite having the record to move themselves up higher. Should be interesting to see how they handle the few heavyweights still left on their schedule.
(+2)9. Louisiana Revolution (2-4)
HN: The Revs have started to turn their season around with two straight wins to their name, but still find themselves in 19th place overall. It looks to me like they will begin to really figure themselves out here as the season progresses and I will easily take them on the over from this point, but playoffs for these guys would be a bigger ask.
(-3)10. Lone Star Glory (3-3)
HN: Another South Division team and another playoff place this time in the form of the 10th seed. Lone Star is currently sitting in 10th and with how up and down the seasons has gone I see them just peeking up over .500 and securing a place without having to enter the tiebreaker lottery.
(+2)11. Atlanta Swarm (3-3)
HN: Atlanta is sitting on the 11th seed through six weeks but I have them faltering from their precarious position and so I’m taking the under here. This could very well be one of the handful of teams that will finish at 6-6 and miss out probably due to Strength of Victory somewhere and have to pack it up and try it all over again in Season 17.
(-2)12. Charleston Predators (3-3)
HN: With the Predators currently in 16th place overall in a big tie for 9th I have Charleston as an outside-looking-in team that will be done in by tiebreakers somewhere down the line. Despite that I will take the over as I can see them butting up against the cutoff for playoff teams or possibly sneaking into them.
(-1)13. St. Louis Gladiators (5-1)
HN: St. Louis finally lost and now have started to see that being in a tie is not where they want to be with weak tiebreakers in SoV and SoS. I still have them winning their division but dropping a few more games along the way and falling a spot or two from their current 4th seed. An under here but I do still believe in this team.
(-)14. Sioux Falls Sparrows (1-5)
HN: Sioux Falls is 22nd but like the Revolution have started to figure things out and notched their first victory over the past weekend. They can’t go much further down and the teams below still need a win so I’m in the over boat here as the Sparrows look to have a respectable end to their season.
(+3)15. Houston Hyenas (3-3)
HN: Houston seems to be on the up and up recently, and after a huge win over the then undefeated Nightwings, find themselves in 9th place. I have them personally projected right there to complete the South division invasion of the playoffs. Hopefully with all four teams we’ll see some rematches.
(+1)16. Arizona Scorpions (3-3)
HN: Arizona is just on the outside at 14th in the big 3-3 clump but unfortunately I do not have them making it out and into the playoffs. At 14th I’m going to give them a push and say they finish right behind Vancouver as one of the few teams that barely miss out.
(+4)17. Tulsa Desperados (3-3)
HN: Tulsa is starting to show some real consistency but the relative strength of the teams they have beaten has been suspect. This week’s matchup with Mexico City should tell us all we need to know about this team. As it stands now the Desperados are 17th and as such I will take the over with them but won’t go as far as to say they make it to the postseason.
(+1)18. Queen City Corsairs (2-4)
HN: The Corsairs got a big win this past week and find themselves in 18th in the overall standings with a tough schedule ahead of them. While I do see some games that are definitely winnable for them there are still a few that will be tall orders for them to overcome and because of this I see this as an over with their 18th place but they will be in the next tier down from the lucky contestants within the tiebreaker lottery.
(-4)19. Carolina Skyhawks (3-3)
HN: Oh Carolina, how I wish I could be saying that this was the season that you put it all together and made a playoff push! This doesn’t seem to be the season just yet but with a 15th place in the standings all hope is not yet lost. I see them dropping games down the stretch though and from this they will tumble, and so I will take the under on their final place.
(+4)20. London Knights (3-3)
HN: This London team is actually in 12th place right now and clinging to the final seed in the playoffs. This is a place that London is all too familiar with and has not been able to clutch it out when it counted. However, this season will be different! This season I have London holding firm to the 12th seed and making the playoffs for the first time in their franchises’ history.
(-5)21. Las Vegas Fury (2-4)
HN: Las Vegas has fallen apart. They were handed a very winnable schedule and had everything in place to make a good run of things, and after two weeks it looked like they were going to do just that. Now four weeks later we are here and they have lost the last 4 games. The Fury are sitting in 21st place in the standings and with a game against a team below them this week could show if they can at least have a respectable finish to their season. I’m taking the over for Las Vegas, but I will say I’m disappointed.
(-)22. Portland Fleet (2-4)
HN: The Fleet are in 20th and I don’t particularly see them moving around too much from here. There’s a few games that they should win and barring any surprises that will be all she wrote and so I’m going to say push and have them finishing here at 20th.
(-3)23. D.C. Dragons (0-6)
HN: D.C. is bound to win some games and shock some teams and I’m surprised they are still winless. There’s nowhere else to really go but up and I don’t see them staying winless for long so this will be an easy over call.
(-1)24. San Diego Mavericks (0-6)
HN: San Diego might win a game! Maybe? Either way they are on the path for a 1st overall pick in the draft and I don’t see this changing as we begin to close out the season. This is a push and I will be very surprised if I’m proven wrong.
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