Written by Hunter Norwood
Edited by Mike Ahl
*Based on an aggregation of our 3 main Elo sheets.
Hunter Norwood (HN): Five weeks have come and gone in the SFL and as we approach the midseason point the relevant stats for this new way of life in the Legend setting are starting to become clearer. One of those things is Home Field Advantage and how it has declined from an All-Pro average of 67% down to the current 55%. Teams have split the last 2 weeks at 6-6 and so for this week I’ll be looking at the upcoming games and picking my own 6 away and 6 home teams that will come away with a victory.
Jack Wall couldn’t be here this week as he was looking into a career as a Reverse Psychologist.
Biggest movers: Arizona Scorpions(+3), Carolina Skyhawks(+3), Fort Worth Toros(+3), Lone Star Glory(+3), Mexico City Aztecs(-3)
(-)1. Denver Nightwings (5-0)
HN: This week the high flying Nightwings host the Hyenas and honestly this is a no-brainer. Denver will win this game even with Houston’s new addition at OC and while it may be close I just can’t see Jeremy losing to a team not named Baltimore here for the first time in what feels like forever.
(-)2. Baltimore Vultures (4-1)
HN: Now that we have the first home victory out of the way let’s get to the first away victory here with the Vultures over Vancouver. There is really not much here to split these teams and it is looking like it will be a game of the year candidate on paper but I’m going to have to go with Baltimore. Looking into the stats the Legion are 3-0 when scoring 27+ points and the Vultures are 4-0 for the same so this may come down to who can get to 27 and hold the other below it.
(+1)3. Florida Storm (4-1)
HN: Florida plays a struggling Sioux Falls team this week on the road and this is just another away win. The Storm are rolling right now and despite some close games from their opponent I don’t see them slowing down Florida at all this week. A 5-1 Storm will be a scary sight to see up there in the standings.
(+1)4. Jacksonville Kings (3-2)
HN: Winning their 100th game in franchise history after coming back home from a 3 game stint on the road I see the Kings continuing to roll at home. The Predators are a good team and I believe this will be a defensive battle and whoever has less turnovers will come out with the W.
(-2)5. Vancouver Legion (3-2)
HN: Vancouver just has not been themselves these past two weeks only scoring 21 points both times and losing both contests. A home game against the Vultures is quite the game to try and turn things back around and stay above .500 and while the game will be close I still think the Legion will fall to 3-3. All is not lost for Vancouver but they are into the harder stretch of their schedule and will need to win a few of these for their records’ sake as well as increasing the all important Strength of Victory stat for tiebreakers at the end of the season.
(+1)6. Los Angeles Lycans (4-1)
HN: Another top team hits the road to face a struggling team; this time it’s the Lycans against the Corsairs. As before I’m going to have to stick with the better team this season and hop on the Lycan train for the 3rd away victory on these rankings. With only a strong Florida team beating them this season and the amount of points they are capable of putting up, this Los Angeles team should have no trouble dispatching Queen City’s struggling offense.
(+3)7. Lone Star Glory (3-2)
HN: The Glory continue their international road trip as they travel to Mexico City this week and the border war should be fierce. Mexico City stayed toe to toe for most of the game last week against a Florida team that was beaten by Lone Star in Week 1 so transitive property says that Lone Star wins here. Thankfully transitive property isn’t real in this case and Week 1 Florida is a totally different team than Week 5 Florida. As well as the fact that the Glory have been a bit up and down so far this season. Mexico has my vote.
(+3)8. Fort Worth Toros (4-1)
HN: Fort Worth heads back home to play an 0-5 San Diego team that already has trouble scoring and will face a team that doesn’t allow teams to score that often. This can easily be a blowout and I’m kind of expecting it. Fort Worth with the 3rd home victory here.
(-3)9. Mexico City Aztecs (3-2)
HN: Mexico City has my vote as the 4th home victory and while I’m seeing this as a closely fought game I also see Mexico City doing what needs to be done when it counts to pull out this victory. Mexico City sitting outside the Top 10 here is not something you see very often and I don’t believe that this is a time that it will happen.
(-2)10. Charleston Predators (3-2)
HN: Charleston is in for a Atlantic divisional war between themselves and Jacksonville this week and it will come down to the Quarterback play of both teams that will decide this one. With that being said this is why I have the Kings pegged to win but boy will it be close.
(-2)11. Louisiana Revolution (1-4)
HN: The Revs seem to be figuring out the run game but with Jonny still struggling to complete passes to his team and not the defense, I see the Fury eating them up here in this game. They have what they need to play them close but turnovers are going to kill them and unless Streeter pops off early they will need to throw the ball to stay in the game.
(+1)12. St. Louis Gladiators (5-0)
HN: The Gladiator almost got done in by the trap game of the year but managed to squeak one out against the Dragons last week. This week they play host to a London team that is still figuring themselves out. While they pose a bigger risk to St. Louis than D.C. did I just can’t go against the guys over here and have them going 6-0 and the 5th home victory.
(-1)13. Atlanta Swarm (2-3)
HN: The OG cardiac kids meet the new school cardiac kids in the Carolina Skyhawks this week and with the Las Vegas Fury filling the spot of 6th home victory I have the Swarm as the 4th away victory here. Now I get that the forced win here isn’t a great look and Atlanta still needs that resume building win, I can still see them pulling it out. Pause. Carolina is a waning seconds throw to Harish from being 2-3 and only really having a Lone Star victory to boast about. The cardiac kids will show up this week and give us a good show and get themselves a close one here.
(-)14. Sioux Falls Sparrows (0-5)
HN: Sioux Falls vs Florida should be an amazing game on the slate. This season it is not. The Sparrows will continue their plummet and hope to make a late season push for pride.
(+3)15. Carolina Skyhawks (3-2)
HN: Carolina is definitely not overrated at 3-2 with signature wins against Lone Star and Charleston. This is a game they should be competing in and to go back to a previous topic, is starting to look like a must win for them to have a .500 season in their sights. I have them falling here but don’t be surprised if they pull a W out of their hat, or Beak, I guess.
(-1)16. Las Vegas Fury (2-3)
HN: For the final home victory I have the Las Vegas Fury getting back into the win column against Louisiana. I will continue to bring up my point of their Week 3 match being a must win and I’ll let the ensuing 3 game losing streak speak for itself. With winnable games going down as losses and a season where 7-5 felt like an easily attainable record and something like 9-3 was possible they now look more like a 5-7 or possibly 7-5. A win here will help their cause and get some confidence back but later games down the stretch will show everyone if they mean business.
(+3)17. Arizona Scorpions (2-3)
HN: Arizona is riding high after a big win over Las Vegas and now goes on the road to Portland. I believe everyone knows my thoughts on Portland so far and the Scorpions should take care of business here and move to .500 on the season at the halfway mark. This might not be close.
(-2)18. Houston Hyenas (2-3)
HN: Houston may have a new offensive mind on their staff but even with all the experience they bring to table I believe the Nightwings will just be too much for this Houston team. This will be a good test of things to come but if they had a few weeks to get settled and be ready for Denver they may have had a better chance.
(-2)19. Queen City Corsairs (1-4)
HN: Queen City is going nowhere fast and with Los Angeles coming to town this week this season looks to be continuing to snowball out of control for the Corsairs. 100 wins is quite the achievement for Queen City but the part where it took them 181 games to get there is beginning to show.
(-1)20. D.C. Dragons (0-5)
HN: At the beginning of the season if you told me that the Dragons were struggling but they had Tulsa up next at home I would probably say that this is a good game for them to get back on track with. Now if you add in that Tulsa is 2-3 and on a two game win streak then after I got past that shock I would be a bit less convinced of D.C.. While the Dragons have shown bits of greatness I have to say that the Desperados are starting to show consistency and that is not what you want to hear if you’re the Dragons.
(+2)21. Tulsa Desperados (2-3)
HN: Tulsa is our 6th and final away win this week as they face D.C. and as stated prior are starting to have an air of consistency about them. If they can keep this up they should have no trouble putting the Dragons away and getting what could be a record setting 3rd straight win in a row!
(+2)22. Portland Fleet (2-3)
HN: Portland pulled themselves off the floor of these rankings and a win is a win and matching last season’s win total after only 5 weeks should be a good moral victory for them. Unfortunately they just haven’t beaten teams that should warrant them that extra look. Once they begin to put it all together get back to me.
(-2)23. San Diego Mavericks (0-5)
HN: At least San Diego is scoring some points these past few weeks so they’ve got that going for them. Unfortunately they have a Fort Worth team that is good at having teams not score too many points and that is not a good sign for the Mavericks. This has blowout written all over it.
(-2)24. London Knights (2-3)
HN: London looks like the team that most people were expecting this season, albeit they have had a pretty tough schedule up to this point. Now with a game against St. Louis on the docket the usual thought is a winnable game except this time the Gladiators are 5-0 and suffocating teams with their defense. London still has a chance here but the way St. Louis has been able to just win games can’t be overlooked and so I have London falling to 2-4.
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