Written by Hunter Norwood
Edited by Mike Ahl
*Based on an aggregation of our 3 main Elo sheets.
Hunter Norwood (HN): In this week’s edition of Elo Power Rankings we’ll be looking at the teams expected wins using the Pythagorean Expected Win(PEW) formula. I won’t bog you down with math formulas, so just know that it is a formula that looks at Points For/Against and projects win based off of these totals. PS: the rankings are still based on Elo standings. PPS: If you are interested in keeping up with the PEW as the season progresses be sure to check in on our Public Season 16 Cheat Sheet(pinned in general chat in Discord or DM me anywhere for the link) as we update game results. You’ll find it on the far right of the standings table in the ‘Calcs’ tab.
Jack Wall can’t be here this week as he is busy trying to Trademark the word “Scorigami”!
Biggest movers: Carolina Skyhawks(+3), Sioux Falls Sparrows(-4), Atlanta Swarm(-5)
(-)1. Denver Nightwings (4-0)
HN: First on Elo and first in PEW are your Denver Nightwings this week. With a projected total of 9.91 wins Denver is almost 2 full games clear of 2nd and I am not terribly surprised. The Nightwings can’t be stopped currently and looking ahead I don’t even really see where the two losses could come from. Could we have another 15-0 season on our hands?
(-)2. Baltimore Vultures (3-1)
HN: Baltimore here actually gets caught in a jumble of teams and shakes out to 5th in PEW at 7.27 wins. With their remaining schedule I could see maybe 3 losses but even then I do not see them losing all three of those games; maybe drop one or two. Regardless of where they finish, this Baltimore team will be scary to play in the postseason and no one will want to play them wherever they may land.
(-)3. Vancouver Legion (3-1)
HN: Vancouver ends up just like the Nightwings here as they sit on 3rd in Elo and end up 3rd in PEW at 7.68 wins. With Vancouver starting to play in the real meat of their schedule here in Week 5 vs the Lycans an 8-4 finish would honestly show how strong they are. If they clear out the remaining schedule then watch out Denver because this Vancouver team would have given themselves a good record with a strong Strength Of Schedule.
(+2)4. Florida Storm (3-1)
HN: Next we have Florida’s PEW and I have a team that will yell at me later. Florida clocks in at 5.9 wins and 15th in the standings. Now if the Storm continue to do enough to win games then they will easily overcome this but as it stands they are averaging nearly the same amount of points for as they are against and that will hurt any team using this metric. If I was a betting man(oh wait I am) I would take Florida on the over here any day of the week and at 3-1 anyone would feel good tailing me on it.
(-1)5. Jacksonville Kings (2-2)
HN: Jacksonville falls this past week and in doing so comes out to 11th in the PEW at 6.4 wins for this season. So it seems the Kings will do just enough to make it back to the playoffs for a record setting 9th consecutive time but will then have a tough time having to go through all the heavy hitters in the playoffs.
(+2)6. Mexico City Aztecs (3-1)
HN: Mexico City is sitting pretty at 3-1 but PEW doesn’t quite like them enough just yet. With an expected wins of 6.2 the Aztecs are just below the Kings and sitting at 12th and just inside the dividing line of playoffs. These next few weeks for Mexico City should begin to tell us what we want to know and I can’t wait to see how everything starts to shake out.
(-2)7. Los Angeles Lycans (3-1)
HN: The Lycans got their first taste of defeat this past weekend and despite this and a small drop in the Elo rankings they are still looking good in the PEW at 7.19 wins which is good enough for 6th in the standings. One thing that it is not good enough for is a Pacific Division title according to this, that respect goes to Vancouver but we shall see how that swings after this weekend when the two teams play for sole possession.
(+1)8. Charleston Predators (3-1)
HN: The Predators have been looking good and have themselves at 3-1 on the season, moved up to 8th in Elo here, and find themselves in 7th within the PEW at 7.08 wins. At 7-5 they would have to split the rest of the season and looking ahead they have 3 top tier teams left, 2 in-state rivalry games and San Diego left on the schedule. An even split with the remaining games would be a bit of a letdown for this Charleston team and I expect them to overcome their expectations by a game or two this season.
(+2)9. Louisiana Revolution (1-3)
HN: Oh I bet there are more than a few of you clamoring to tell me that the Revs don’t belong here after only winning their first game. And you’re probably right and to be honest the math agrees with you. The PEW slots Louisiana in at 16th with 5.6 wins. Now Louisiana turning the season around and going nearly or at .500 would be quite the showing and possibly enough to slip into the playoffs depending on who they beat to get to that point. But I see them going under this season and using this as a jumping off point to start off season 17 on the right foot.
(+2)10. Lone Star Glory (2-2)
HN: Lone Star gets a big win this past week over the Kings and moves into the top 10 in Elo and in the PEW they end up in 8th at 6.84 wins. The Glory have been a bit back and forth this season and a 6-6 finish seems like what they are heading towards but a few extra wins here and there can easily get them to a 7-5 or 8-4 finish and firmly place them in the money.
(+2)11. Fort Worth Toros (3-1)
HN: Ah Fort Worth. After a 3-1 start to the season and some close wins and not so close wins they continue to try and push past their in-state rival, the Lone Star Glory, and if the PEW has anything to say about it then they will do just that. As it turns out they are expected to have 8.19 wins by seasons’ end which puts them at 2nd in the standings with a South Division title to show for it.
(-5)12. Atlanta Swarm (2-2)
HN: The Swarm are our biggest losers this week dropping 5 spots after losing to the then winless Louisiana Revolution and to show for that they end up at 14th in the PEW with 6.08 wins. Atlanta is starting to show a sophomore slump with Dynasty and will hope to weather this storm as they attempt to make it back to the promised land.
(+2)13. St. Louis Gladiators (4-0)
HN: And here we are again with the Gladiators down here and at 4-0. All I can say is that there is progress being made on that front as they move up two spots this week and have a bit of an “easier” game against D.C. this week as they look to move to 5-0 and keep climbing. Now as far as the PEW is concerned the Glads are showing 4th overall with 7.33 wins and an East Division title as they would look to enter the playoffs with a first round bye.
(-4)14. Sioux Falls Sparrows (0-4)
HN: Sioux Falls just can’t quite get that first win but they sure are getting close. The PEW has them at 3.11 wins this season and that’s good enough for 23rd. This season is looking like a bust already and they may need to turn their attention to being playoff busters instead of contenders.
(-1)15. Las Vegas Fury (2-2)
HN: Remember when I said a few weeks back that the Fury’s Week 3 game was a must-win for them? Yea well this is why as they drop their 2nd straight game and start to tumble in the standings. I want to believe that they can do it this time around but they really need to stop the bleeding here if they want to do that. The PEW has them cocking in at 6.53 wins and a 10th place finish for the season which would be good enough to enter the Tiebreaker Sweepstakes at the conclusion of Week 12. Should be a photo finish.
(+2)16. Houston Hyenas (2-2)
HN: A good win for Houston keeps them alive in these early days of the season but the Hyenas need to stay consistent if they want to get back into the playoff talk and based on what the PEW is seeing that will not be happening this season. Houston is showing an expected total of 5.07 wins which in the current SFL landscape is just not good enough to move on. The next few weeks for this team will start to tell their story.
(-1)17. Queen City Corsairs (1-3)
HN: What is happening to Queen City? They win their 100th game in franchise history then just hit a wall and fall now to 1-3. The season is still early and most anyone can still turn things around but the math with the PEW doesn’t like the outlook as it has the Corsairs at 4.63 wins and 19th place overall. Queen City is on the hot seat, let’s see how they handle it.
(+3)18. Carolina Skyhawks (2-2)
HN: Carolina gets their 2nd win this season and I know the boys and Harish over there will like what I’m about to say. The PEW has the Skyhawks at 6.55 wins and good enough for a 9th place finish in the SFL. Now if I’m Carolina I would want to go highside there and make it 7-5 so you don’t get knocked out by some 6-6 shenanigans, but that’s just me. Carolina is starting to turn things around and now it’s time to see if it’ll pay off.
(-2)19. D.C. Dragons (0-4)
HN: D.C. falls to 0-4 and despite showing good progress I believe they are a good season 17 team and no more than a playoff buster for this current season. With a PEW of 3.5 wins and an expected finish of 22nd place the season is nearly lost for the Dragons but this team will fight to the bitter end and that’s what we all love to see.
(-)20. Arizona Scorpions (1-3)
HN: This season Arizona has not been hit with the injury bug but they still have not been able to get things going for them. 1-3 is not where you want to be this season and the PEW is saying that things won’t get a whole better. With 5.01 wins expected and an 18th place finish the Scorpions offense may look to go back to the drawing board as the season progresses.
(-1)21. San Diego Mavericks (0-4)
HN: I hate saying that a teams’ season is a bust but sometimes you gotta call a spade a spade. 0-4 is a helluva hole to dig yourself out of and with how the tiebreakers tend to work this Mavericks team has an allotment of 2 losses left and even then it may be too much to get over the hump. The PEW agrees and has them at 3.02 wins and last in the standings.
(-)22. London Knights (2-2)
HN: Oh London how I want to see you finally get to the extra games at the end of the season. Things are starting to point towards a 6-6 finish with the Tiebreaker Sweepstakes on the horizon. PEW is also seeing that as it has London at 6.1 wins expected and that slots them in at 13th just below the Aztecs.
(+1)23. Tulsa Desperados (1-3)
HN: Tulsa got their first win on the season but how many more will we see from this team? The PEW says 3 or 4 more as they end up at 4.44 wins and 20th overall this season. Tulsa showed what they can be this past week and if they can start to consistently show that to teams then they can start a positive run of their own.
(-1)24. Portland Fleet (1-3)
HN: I heard I lost a reader with my last Portland write up so I guess he won’t be here to see this one. Probably for the best as Portland falls to last in Elo and PEW is only giving them 4.15 wins and a 21st place finish this season. Progress is being made for the Fleet but like some of the other teams down here they just need to start being consistent.
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