SFL Season 16 Week 1 Power Rankings*

Written by Hunter Norwood

Edited by Mike Ahl

*Based on an aggregation of our 3 main Elo sheets. 


Hunter Norwood (HN): Week 1 of the new season has come and passed and one team hit their 100th win in franchise history! This week we look back at historical records and if teams will beat their average win totals(To be clear I’ve calculated the historical win percentage and multiplied by 12 then cleaned the number up to represent an Over/Under for the season). It’s good to be back!

Jack Wall couldn’t be here this week, alright, actually he could have but this is Jack we’re talking about!

Biggest movers: Atlanta Swarm(+3), Lone Star Glory(+3), Charleston Predators(+3), D.C. Dragons(-5)

(-)1. Baltimore Vultures (50-20)
HN: Over/Under 8.5: I’m taking the over any day of the week here. Baltimore was on a mission last season and looks to be doing the same this time around. I expect them to clear this comfortably. 

(-)2. Denver Nightwings (46-23)

HN: Over/Under 8.5: Jizzy V at the helm? Over! Oh and while we are here, Nice! Back to Denver, this team showed out against a strong Sioux Falls squad and they look like they can roll anyone who stands in their path. 

(+1)3. Jacksonville Kings (98-50)

HN: Over/Under 8.5: Of course I’m taking the over but based on the rest of the Podcast League this is not a homer or hot take. The quest for fastest to 100 is on and the Kings are looking to take the throne!

(+2)4. Vancouver Legion (46-45)

HN: Over/Under 6.5: Vancouver has entered a bit of a renaissance after spending too many seasons on the cusp and that must be why they sit at a lower average. In any case it’ll be over by a country mile as they look to notch their 50th win and get further away from that 50/50 record.

(+3)5. Atlanta Swarm (57-48)

HN: Over/Under 6.5: There will be unders on this list but it’s not starting here. Well, unless you’re the host of Netma it is not starting here. Dynasty has taken over well for Atlanta and I see them building on last season and finishing just over at 7-5 or 8-4. 

(-3)6. Sioux Falls Sparrows (83-53)

HN: Over/Under 7.5: Is Denver just that good, is Sioux Falls gonna have a rough season or is just Week 1 jitters? Time will tell but the Sparrows feel like an 8-4 team and I’m going to go over here but like the Swarm before them it could be a close one.

(+3)7. Lone Star Glory (8-6)

HN: Over/Under 7.5: It is time to make some difficult choices and I am going to say under by a hair. LSG finishes 7-5 again but in the postseason. This time around they make it to the second round of the playoffs and continue their push towards glory.

(-3)8. Louisiana Revolution (10-5)

HN: Over/Under 8.5: Under here as well. I can see 8-4 as a strong possibility but I just don’t have the Revs rattling off 9 in their next 11 games. Still a strong team and not to be counted out but after dropping the opener it will be hard to match their 8-1 start to last season.

(-2)9. Florida Storm (77-35)

HN: Over/Under 8.5: I’ll be going under at this metric and you could say that Florida’s breakout seasons inflated their average, but I will also stick to my thinking this past season; the league has finally caught up to Mighty. While he is still putting out a team that is a nightmare to gameplan against, it has become just a bit more realistic to get one over the boys in powder blue.

(+2)10. Los Angeles Lycans (1-0)
HN: Over/Under 6: New team and no average to calculate so I’ll be betting on whether they finish .500 or not. For the LA Lakers Lycans I believe that Tom can get a good showing out of the team and will get to 7 wins and so over .500.

(+3)11. Charleston Predators (18-20)

HN: Over/Under 5.5: I’m just taking averages here and this isn’t a slight towards Alan with the 5.5 but I’m taking the over after a down year from the Predators. Charleston put on a good display against Mexico City and I can see them rolling to a 8-4 or possibly 9-3 record this season and give themselves a much better average this time next season.

(-3)12. Mexico City Aztecs (84-59)

HN: Over/Under 7.5: Gonna say it is a squeaker here and go with the under. Mexico City should get to 7 and they have potential for more but I’m saying they come out on the wrong side of the coin. Prove me wrong Ramos!

(+2)13. Queen City Corsairs (100-81)

HN: Over/Under 6.5: 100 wins but only an average in the mid sixes is not what I was expecting. The Corsairs have been on a bit of a downswing but they’re beginning to right the ship. I tell you what though, after the easy overs these middle teams are not easy to pick. I can see 6-6 to 8-4 and it really comes down to how they put themselves together in the later weeks. Queen City got lucky against the Toros at the end there as Fort Worth went for it all. I’m going to believe in this team and say they go just over.

(+3)14. Las Vegas Fury (29-34)

HN: Over/Under 5.5: I’m sorry Slinn when you read this over after I send it in. It’s going to be an under for me here. Looking at the schedule it just doesn’t look great but then again anything can happen in this league. But for me I’m sticking to the Under.

(-2)15. San Diego Mavericks (0-1)

HN: Over/Under 6: Took the over on the Lycans but I will be going under here for the Mavericks. Obviously haven’t seen much of them but not everyone can go 7-5+ and I’m seeing this season as a build to something greater in season 17 

(-5)16. D.C. Dragons (18-18)

HN: Over/Under 5.5: DC has history from before but after their last loss it brings them to .500 all-time with some playoff wins(and a title) in there. However, here I’ll be going with the rest of my constituents and saying under as they may go the way of the Fleet this season. 

(-1)17. Fort Worth Toros (5-8)

HN: Over/Under 4.5: Fort Worth was guilty of a down season last time out and so their average doesn’t have much to go off of. Now will they do better than last season? Yes, 4.5 will be an easy number to clear and I can see them in that mix of 6-6 teams fighting it out at the end.

(-)18. Houston Hyenas (64-69)

HN: Over/Under 5.5: This one will be really close but I’m going to stick to the under here. Houston is one of those sneaky good teams but until I start to see them able to be consistent with their offense I just don’t liken them to a playoff caliber squad.

(-)19. Arizona Scorpions (9-16)

HN: Over/Under 4.5: I’ll be placing Arizona in the mix of 6-6 teams fighting for a spot this season and as such they will definitely clear the 4.5 total. The Scorpions are another sneaky good team and never fun to plan for.  

(+1)20. St. Louis Gladiators (29-69)

HN: Over/Under 3.5: This here is a product of having some very down seasons and now that the Glads are starting to get some uptick I have them not quite in the playoffs but they will be getting at the very least 4 wins this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 5 or 6 and a playoff push but 3 is just not on the cards for these guys anymore.

(-1)21. Tulsa Desperados (32-42)

HN: Over/Under 5.5: Tulsa is and always will be an enigma to me. I have no clue what they will bring to the table from week to week. What I do know is that I don’t see the playoffs in their future and for that I will be taking the under here.

(+2)22. London Knights (22-51)

HN: Over/Under 3.5: Here again I do not see the revamped London Knights ending the playoff drought but I do see them making good progress on that front and so I will be taking the over on this one.

(-1)23. Portland Fleet (2-11)

HN: Over/Under 2.5: I have Portland struggling again but not as bad as last season. This is an over for me and I honestly hope I’m right.

(-1)24. Carolina Skyhawks (39-84)

HN: Over/Under 4.5: I’m sorry Harish but it is going to be an under for me here. I like what I see out of this Carolina team but I need them to prove to me that they can be great before I feel comfortable betting on their success.

 

If you’ve read this far I would like to thank you for taking the time to pore over another bit of SFL content. If you enjoy what you’ve read and/or seen then please head on over to the Twitters and drop us a follow @JaxData. Once there you’ll be able to look over our behind the scenes posts that detail the three sheets that make up these aggregated rankings. If you stick around long enough at JaxData you will see some fun stats like Pythagorean Projected Wins or possibly teams odds at winning the title. We might even show you how each statistical category affects the outcome of a game. All that and more here at the first and only Data Department of the SFL!