Written by Hunter Norwood, Images by Jonny Law
Edited by Mike Ahl
*Based on an aggregation of our 3 main Elo sheets.
Hunter Norwood (HN): Week 4 has come and gone and what I expected things to start to look like is happening. For the preseason rankings we leaned heavily into the OG G-ELO formula which tends to err on the side of the true standings. Adding in the other sheets made teams get a little mixed around but as you’ll see it’s starting to get predictable. I had planned on changing weights around this time and will be doing so for the week 5 edition and from there on out. For reference, the OG sheet is calling games at a 75% clip and 66.8% overall, the ⅓ regress sheet is calling games at 80% and is 69.6% overall and the No Regression sheet is 73.3% this season as well as 68.5% overall. We will be shifting to a heavier lean into the ⅓ sheet for this season based on this but regardless here are the Week 4 Elo rankings and the sheets will be up on Twitter soon!
Jack Wall is absent this week as he is looking into pursuing a career as the small blind in online poker.
(+1)1. Sioux Falls Sparrows (1578.81)
HN: Took a few weeks but here are the Sparrows atop the rankings like other pundits have stated in the past. A solid victory over the recent newcomers to the top 11 have edged them up a spot after Baltimore had a close game against Denver. The new formula next week will continue to be kind to Sioux Falls so expect them up here if they can continue winning.
(-1)2. Baltimore Vultures (1577.52)
HN: A close win is not enough for Elo all the time and with the slimmest of margins in the top 2 it wasn’t enough here to retain the top position. Baltimore is still looking good regardless and as long as they keep to my constant Elo mantra they should see themselves back on top. Just keep winning.
(+4)3.Mexico City Aztecs (1561.38)
HN: Mexico City gets a big home victory against a then undefeated Louisiana team that really peaked Elo’s interest this past week. On top of gaining around 12 points they were able to capitalize on some teams losing and shoot up into the top 5. The Aztecs should be fine after the formula rework but the real challenge is taking on Houston away from home when HFC is at an even 75% win rate.
(+6)4. Chicago Wildcats (1552.68)
HN: Chicago received high marks in Elo after stomping London on the road 41-20. I believe a rise by 6 spots is the highest we’ve seen here so far and Chicago is looking to continue their push higher into these rankings this week at home vs the #8 Atlanta Swarm. I believe I had stated in the preseason ranking that Chicago was on the path to a semi finals berth if they keep the same trajectory as the past few seasons and pushing one step closer to another chance at a title.
(-1)5. Denver Nightwings (1552.43)
HN: Denver can probably be happy that a close loss has only bumped them down one spot and they were only skimmed past by the Wildcats. Depending on results this clump in the middle will see the most movement when the formula flips but Jizzy V and the Nightwings are looking good either way and should look at this as just another number wherever they may fall
(-3)6. Jacksonville Kings(1549.41)
HN: The Kings drop another game to a team that was not close to them per Elo, however the home field bump brought them up a few spots. Despite this and the large loss across the board they have tumbled outside of the Top 5. They have a matchup this week against the #22 Carolina Skyhawks at home and will look to bounce back and possibly back into the upper echelons of these rankings.
(+2)7. Vancouver Legion (1549.13)
HN: Vancouver used a close road victory to get a good bump in Elo and start to make some real headway in these rankings. They’re a hair off of the Kings and after the new formula is implemented it won’t matter where it puts them so long as they can keep winning on the road, especially as they go to play the #2 Vultures.
(-)8. Atlanta Swarm (1547.61)
HN: Atlanta puts another W on the board but seeing as it was a struggling Predators team the Elo gods were not gracious enough to give them enough to move up. The Swarm are doing what they need to be doing though; which is to just keep winning. A big away game vs #4 Chicago is just the kind of game they need to win to see them shoot up the list next week.
(-3)9. Louisiana Revolution (1535.39)
HN: The Revolution dropped from 6 to 9 this week. Nice number combination! The Revs go on the road to face the #19 Fleet. They will need a big margin of victory for a nice gain here.
(-5)10. Queen City Corsairs (1534.38)
HN: In a current age of home teams winning a vast majority of games the Corsairs dropped one at home and paid the price for it here. Queen City looks to pay it forward though as they move on to play the #18 Gladiators on the road.
(+2)11. Arizona Scorpions (1526.86)
HN: And finally a fresh face on these rankings in the Arizona Scorpions. They have looked like the team to beat with the patented Two Scoops Defense and an offense that seems to be figuring itself out week to week. The Scorpions took it to the Kings are were able to get big numbers in Elo and jump into this 11th spot and they look to hold onto it this week as they play the #15 Predators.
Team(s) that have fallen out: (-2)#13 Las Vegas Fury(1509.40)
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