With just three weeks left in the regular season, we’re down the stretch of Season 9. No teams have clinched, three teams have been eliminated. These things we know. Here’s what’s at stake in Week 10:
Can clinch: Queen City
The Corsairs are having their finest regular season of franchise history. The most wins Queen City has had in a season – including playoffs – is 10 in Season 6 after a 7-5 regular-season finish. Queen City leads the league in rushing for the second-straight season and have the No. 1 scoring defense (22.0). Corsairs play Atlanta and with a win will clinch a playoff spot, but cannot clinch anything more than that. Queen City still has Atlanta and Chicago left to play and split the season series with Tallahassee.
Can be eliminated: Almost Baltimore and Cleveland
Let’s start with the Crabs. Falling to 5-5 would be horrific for Baltimore. The Crabs will have been swept by Tallahassee and Atlanta, meaning Baltimore could only knock out Chicago at 7-5 by winning point differential, which Baltimore currently is trailing by 62 points. Without tiebreakers in a mucked-up East, Baltimore will be on the outside looking in for the second-consecutive year. To Cleveland, the Stallions must win out to get to 6-6. Someone of the group of three 6-3 teams and Baltimore will need to fail to reach the seven-win mark. For Cleveland, their best bet is Tallahassee. The Stallions won the tiebreaker with them 1-0 and if Cleveland can split with Baltimore, the Stallions would push out both. With a loss, Cleveland’s done.
Can clinch: Alaska, Houston, Mexico City
You might say: How in the world can three teams from the West clinch this week with the West so close? Well, the season is close to being over – that’s how. If Dallas, Sioux Falls and OKC lose – all three can clinch. Simply put, there are three teams that can knock the top three teams out in the West right now – but not if one of the bottom three lose and the top three win … 4-6 can’t top 7-5. If even one of the 4-5 teams win, it could mean that none of these clinch but after this week, we’ll find just a small version of clarity in the West.
Can be eliminated: Dallas
If Vancouver wins it would damage Dallas almost beyond repair. At 6-4, Vancouver would own the head-to-head tiebreaker with Dallas. The Ruffnecks got swept by Houston if it’s the Hyenas who fall to 6-4 this week and were also swept by Alaska if the Storm lose this week. It’s a no-win situation for Dallas who would need a Mexico City loss to OKC to remain in hopeful contention, since it’s the only top-four tiebreaker Dallas currently owns. To summarize, if Dallas loses, Mexico City wins and Vancouver wins – Dallas’ goose is cooked.
What crazy looks like: If OKC beats Mexico City, Sioux Falls beats Vancouver and Dallas takes care of business against San Antonio
- Alaska or Houston 7-3
- Mexico City 6-4
- Alaska or Houston 6-4
- Sioux Falls 5-5 (tied for best record against tied teams, beats OKC on points for fourth)
- Vancouver 5-5 (after three-way tie amongst remaining tied teams, currently leads in points)
- Dallas 5-5 (1-0 against OKC)
- OKC 5-5